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greedyG
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Blunders galore...

Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

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Here I roll the perfect roll and was playing for the match score 3-4 i was trailing. Cube is at 4. Perfect roll to win the match. I move both checkers out like I was supposed to them suddenly realized I can make a home point with 66 so what do I do.. Yep.. i undid the move and hit with one checker and made the home point. Gnubg rated it as a -16.20% blunder which is about as big a blunder one can make. It reduced my chances from 77 down to 61%, And yes, i did get punished for the mistake and lost the match

I would normally not make such a mistake but I was playing carelessly this day and I had something of a flaw in the way I percieved the position. I somehow mistakenly imagined that the second play would result in both back checkers coming out to the bar point while making the home board point. Ofcourse one checker is still buried behind that huge prime in the bad play by the time i hit and made the home point i forgot about the back checker still left behind, and finished the move. A double roll can lure us into erros because we dont take time to consider all the increased possible moves.

This is where you will notice the diff between top players and amateurs. The top players always pause and think before they make a play on a double roll.
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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greedyG
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Re: Blunders galore...

Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:11 am

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Not much to say here other than huh? did I really do that? What was I thinking?

-10% blunder almost as bad as ourtight resigning. ;)
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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greedyG
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Re: Blunders galore...

Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:22 am

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A few rolls later in the same game above this 5-2 roll arrived and I am happy to say that I did get it right, the bot missed and I went on to win the match with a gammon. :D This is one of those plays where you have to be on the receiving end of the stick to know such a play even exists. But once it has been used against you successfully, you will be eager to try it out ourself once you get into a similar position.

It should be pointed out that the main reason this kamikazi play is correct is because the gammon wins are doubled. Otherwise, if you dont need to win a gammon, you are better off with the safe play as the analysis shows it wins more games. But since a gammon here wins the match outright, it is worth the chance.
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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greedyG
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Re: Blunders galore...

Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:54 pm

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Here is another terrible blunder that cost me the match. I battled to post crawford 6-6 in a 7 pt match and well on the way to victory when this 33 roll shows up and I could not see the correct play which was to take one checker all the way to the back. I could only see either move 2 to the bar point leaving a blot back or move the blot to the bar and move 2 checkers down. The overall match rated my game as advanced so I am not too disappointed but still was a lousy blunder which I hope never to repeat in the future.
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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greedyG
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Re: Blunders galore...

Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:36 pm

Here is a position that could be a massive blunder if you aren't paying attention. I almost made the wrong play not realizing how terrible a move it would have been. Only upon the analysis did I see how close I came to making a colossal mistake but in this case I did make the right play, and got lucky and went on to win the match, even after getting hit on that bar point blot. One major point to understand about this situation is the match score. You don't want to get gammoned here with the cube on 2. Also notice how aggressively the bot doubled right after his first move.

(click the picture to see a full size image)
blumder.jpg
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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greedyG
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triple bunder ~-300

Mon May 04, 2015 6:24 pm

Here is a triple blunder with a move that I simply did not see. Playing Red, it was a doubles roll 2-2. I was in a vulnerable position with several blots laying about with weak home board blot on 5 pt. When I rolled the 22 my first thought was to cover my blot on the 5 pt and once I saw that was possible I simply did not consider any other move and I got dinged with a -286 blunder. Doubles are tricky as there are so many ways to play them. If you don't pause and look closely you may miss the best play.

click the image to view full size
1.jpg
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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greedyG
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Re: Blunders galore...

Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:52 am

Here is a blunder I have made several times. Maybe I will learn not to repeat it one of these days.

blunder.jpg


1. Cubeful 3-ply 16/8 13/9 7/3 Eq.: +0.290
0.675 0.036 0.002 - 0.325 0.076 0.002
3-ply cubeful
2. Cubeful 3-ply 16/8 13/9(2) Eq.: +0.284 ( -0.006)
0.677 0.035 0.002 - 0.323 0.183 0.003
3-ply cubeful
3. Cubeful 3-ply 16/8 6/2*(2) Eq.: +0.127 ( -0.163)
0.603 0.035 0.001 - 0.397 0.098 0.002
3-ply cubeful
================================================================

so basically we don't need to be breaking our prime as it makes it very easy for opponent to escape.
We can give em one chance to roll a 5 if not they will be primed in. With my stupid play putting on the bar accomplish nothing breaks my prime and lost any chance to contain that back checker. its a coin flip between the first 2 moves.
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

Orloff
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Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:13 am

Re: Blunders galore...

Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:10 am

My blunder's 18% lol. I feel like such a newb.

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greedyG
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Re: Blunders galore...

Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:43 am

Orloff wrote:My blunder's 18% lol. I feel like such a newb.


as a beginner you will make many blunders.
If you analyze your games and become aware of your mistakes, you will improve much faster
Backgammon is tricky. It lulls you into believing that you lost because of bad luck.
Sometimes that is the case but often we lose because we kill our winning chances by making bad moves.

It is generally accepted that the eq option (vs MWC) is better.
gnubg has a button to toggle it.

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You can read up on it by google (eq vs mwc)
.100 or higher is considered a blunder.
If you get too many, you can bump it up to 120 or higher and lower it as you improve.
.200 is a double blunder and .300 is triple ie huge mistake.
Backgammon is a luck/skill game similar to card games like poker and gin rummy. Estimating and maximizing your winning probability is key
http://www.download-texas-holdem-poker.com

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