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forgetting to double

Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:05 pm

So sometimes..we get mesmerized by the backgammon drama that we completely forget we are holding the cube and doubling might be an option :D
Well here is an example of such an event.

I am preparing for the last rites with an ace point anchor, my arch rival and nemisis (GreedyG) a couple rolls away from a doubled gammon or even backgammon to put me out of my misery. (5 pt match, score 0-0) I am playing White.

Bot rolls 55, leaving a single blot. I hit the blot. My chances of losing was 99.2%.

Bot stays on the bar and we arrive to this position where I roll 44 and we are pretty much a coin flip at this point. I am a slight underdog 46% to win. Well that is a long way from 99% to lose just a few rolls earlier.

So I move my 44 roll, amazed that I may actually win this :o , bot rolls 5-1 and here we are at this position.
So at this point.. what am I thinking? yep.. ROLL SMALL NUMBERS YOU S.O.B! SMALL NUMBERS 2-1 3-1

I should have been thinking.. hey, wait a minute.. I am actually the favorite here :D If we count the rolls, the bot is actually missing with 19/36 rolls only 17 rolls get that blot off the board. So yeah.. i SHOULD have redoubled to 4. It was a double blunder (.200+) not to redouble. I rolled, the bot missed and I won that very rare last checker left game. And this one was even more unlikely since the board was not closed off. Could have escaped out with any 6.

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.213 (Money: +0.213)
0.606 0.000 0.000 - 0.394 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.448
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.552)
3. No double +0.213 ( -0.235)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

And I went on to win the match, even though I played badly (beginner level)
sgf file attached
(52.25 KiB) Downloaded 10 times
Download GreedyGammon, free backgammon game right here ... taller.exe

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