Might as well double
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:43 pm
So sometimes we are presented with a situation where we are about to get gammoned, maybe even backgammoned, but our opponent has been forced to leave 2 blots which will turn the tables if we hit. So do we double or not? Here is an example of such a situation. I am playing White and about to lose a gammon on a 2 cube for the match but if I hit I am the favorite. Do I redouble for the match? (3 pt match score 0-0)
I failed to double (will know better next time
), It was a .160 blunder not to double. I hit a blot and it turned into a redouble/pass. So I was up 2-0 in the 3 pt match. Clearly If i had missed, it would have been all over as I would have been gammoned. But with the 2 blots, I was at that point, actually the favorite 67% chance to win. So the correct cube action was double/take.
But that is not the end of the story. This exact same position would be a .120 blunder to redouble to 4 if it was a longer match like say 11 pt, score 0-0. Now you DON'T want to ship over a 4 cube. Why? Because it could come back at you 8 and you would have to drop if you missed. But at the low match length and score, the cube cannot be used back on you since you are already playing for the match. At the longer match score behind 4-0 in 11 pt match is not the end of the world.
See how delightfully tricky backgammon is heh
I failed to double (will know better next time
), It was a .160 blunder not to double. I hit a blot and it turned into a redouble/pass. So I was up 2-0 in the 3 pt match. Clearly If i had missed, it would have been all over as I would have been gammoned. But with the 2 blots, I was at that point, actually the favorite 67% chance to win. So the correct cube action was double/take. But that is not the end of the story. This exact same position would be a .120 blunder to redouble to 4 if it was a longer match like say 11 pt, score 0-0. Now you DON'T want to ship over a 4 cube. Why? Because it could come back at you 8 and you would have to drop if you missed. But at the low match length and score, the cube cannot be used back on you since you are already playing for the match. At the longer match score behind 4-0 in 11 pt match is not the end of the world.
See how delightfully tricky backgammon is heh