One concept that all backgammon players should understand early on is the probability of hitting numbers. So let's compare the difference between a blot that is 1 space away, to one that is 6 spaces away. Which one has more chance of getting hit? Well, lets count the rolls.
So this image is the standard 6*6 grid that we use to count rolls. There are a total of 36 unique rolls. Even though in backgammon some rolls are the same like 6-5 and 5-6. But we count them as unique for calculation convenience with the 6*6 grid.
So back to our first quiz. What is the difference between a blot 1 away and 6 away? The blot that is 1 away has 11 rolls that hit it.
[1-1] [1-2] [1-3] [1-4] [1-5] [1-6] [2-1] [3-1] [4-1] [5-1] [6-1]
A blot that is 6 away can be wacked 17 kinds of ways.Lets count them.
[6-1] [6-2] [6-3] [6-4] [6-5] [6-6] [1-6] [2-6] [3-6] [4-6] [5-6] the standard 11 direct shots AND [3-3] [4-2] [2-4] [5-1] [1-5] [2-2] for a total of 17 shots. 6 happens to be the most hitting number and it drops off sharply with 7 as it is the first indirect shot. So if you can stay 7 away you are relatively safe. If you want to minimize your chance of getting hit, stay 7 or more away, or if that isn't possible, try to scoot as close as possible to the hitting checker with 1 away the best chance and as the numbers go up so do the hitting chances, up to 6 which is hit 47% of rolls.
How many rolls hit with a 7?
[6-1] [1-6-] [5-2] [2-5] [4-3] [3-4] that's it. Only 6 hitting numbers 16.6%
What about numbers that can't be hit?
Yes we have some of those as well.        are all safe from any roll.
Generally once you get to 7, the further away you are the fewer hitting chances.
This page has more info about this subject http://www.paulspages.co.uk/bgvaults/tips/dicerolls.php