So here is a position where the wrong play cost a chance to win the match right then and there.
Playing White, 3 pt match, score 0-0, holding a 2 cube. I had a chance to play aggressively for a gammon. Instead I played the safe play of maintaining the prime. It is often correct "not to break a prime" until you are forced to. Nothing more annoying than to break a prime and have the opponent scamper away to safety. But in this particular case, the biggest priority is to put both checkers on the bar, and if we have to break our prime to get that done, that is what we have to do. Putting both checkers on the bar would greatly increase chances of gammon and winning the match right then and there. But with my play, the opponent anchored back in and saved gammon. My play was #3. Not a huge blunder but still bad. Notice it does actually win more games .961 vs .954 but the gammons are way down with that play .387 vs .309. Giving up 8% gammon chance is HUGE, when a gammon will win the match outright.
1. Cubeful 3-ply 7/2 7/1* Eq.: +1.273
0.954 0.387 0.009 - 0.046 0.005 0.000
3-ply cubeful
2. Cubeful 3-ply 11/6 7/1* Eq.: +1.237 ( -0.035)
0.954 0.344 0.009 - 0.046 0.002 0.000
3-ply cubeful
3. Cubeful 3-ply 11/6 8/2 Eq.: +1.222 ( -0.051)
0.961 0.309 0.008 - 0.039 0.000 0.000
3-ply cubeful
4. Cubeful 2-ply 11/5 7/2 Eq.: +1.213 ( -0.060)
0.953 0.315 0.010 - 0.047 0.002 0.000
2-ply cubeful
5. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2 7/2 Eq.: +1.204 ( -0.069)
0.951 0.308 0.009 - 0.049 0.002 0.000
2-ply cubeful
