So here is a position I managed to make a .149 blunder
Its a 3 pt match score 1-1 (2 away/2away)
Cube is turned we are playing for the match
I roll 65
I figured if I hit and leave 2 blots in my home board opp has 20 shots that hit from the bar (any 1 or 2)
But if I play both from the 8 pt I only leave a single direct shot (any 1) and indirect shot on the 8 pt (total 13 shots)
Analysis smacks it down with NO! that's a blunder
1. Cubeful 4-ply 8/2 6/1* Eq.: +0.337
0.669 0.047 0.001 - 0.331 0.020 0.000
4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]
2. Cubeful 4-ply 8/3 8/2 Eq.: +0.188 ( -0.149)
0.594 0.027 0.001 - 0.406 0.030 0.000
4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]
So trying to figure out why the move is a blunder I rearranged the opp position to that below
And lo and behold, my move is now correct!
1. Cubeful 4-ply 8/3 8/2 Eq.: +0.122
0.561 0.011 0.000 - 0.439 0.075 0.001
4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]
2. Cubeful 4-ply 8/2 6/1* Eq.: -0.002 ( -0.124)
0.499 0.021 0.000 - 0.501 0.052 0.000
4-ply cubeful prune [4ply]
HItting would be a .124 blunder.
So what is the difference?
The original position I failed to notice I was 19 pips behind. 79/60
When that pip lead is cut down to 4 pips in the second position the whole strategy changes
Yeah, when you are behind 20 pips, you cant be lollygagging around with passive plays
You have to attack and put your opp on the bar otherwise you will be rolling your eyes to the sky and praying for big doubles which never appear.
Or worse, could be rolled by your opp to punish you for your mistake.
If opp is on the bar, she can roll doubles all day will still be stuck there till you have half your checkers off.